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National and Vancouver Fall Market Highlights 2015*

Blog by Nancy Rondeau | September 17th, 2015

16 September 2015, written by SIRC

Sotheby's International Realty Canada's latest report forecasts strengthing demand for residential real estate over $1 million in Toronto and Vancouver into the fall, including building momentum in luxury sales over $4 million, reinforcing both cities' positions as international market leaders in top-tier real estate.
The 2015 Fall Forecast analyzes Canada's largest metropolitan real estate markets and examination of key macro-economic indicators.

Sales of units over $1 million (condominiums, attached and detached single family) increased 56%, 48%, and 20% year-over-year in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), Vancouver, and Montreal markets respectively, while sales volume decreased 36% in Calgary. At the same time, luxury real estate sales in the $2-4 million and the $4 million-plus ranges surged 52% and 71% in Vancouver, and 46% and 72% in the GTA.

National Highlights:

  • The Bank of Canada's September 2015 decision to hold the key overnight interest rate at 0.5% will continue to have a positive impact on real estate sales over $1 million
  • In most metropolitan markets, the contraction in the Canadian economy during the first part of the year, and speculation that growth may weaken has not affected consumer confidence in the $1 million-plus real estate market.
  • The demand for single-family homes over $1 million in the GTA and Vancouver is expected to remain high, outstripping available inventory.
  • There's limited supply in the single family home market. As a result, demand for condominiums and attached homes over $1 milliom n is expected to remain strong in the Greater Toronto Area and Vancouver.
  • International demand for top-tier real estate in Canada's major cities is expected to remain high as volatility in global stock markets and a faltering Chinese economy results in a continued influx of buyers, particularily from mainland China.
  • The upcoming federal election is not expected to impact the $1 million-plus real estate market heading into fall 2015.

Vancouver Market Highlights:
  • Limited inventory, strong consumer demand, low interest rates and international buyers will continue to drive favourable seller conditions, multiple offers and sales above list prices in the fall.
  • Vancouver's $1 million-plus real estate market is expected to continue to trend upward in fall 2015.
  • Detached single family home market is expected to lead gains in sales volume and pricing, particularily in the $2-4 million and $4 million-plus luxury segments, while the performance of the attached home and condo markets will remain strong.
  • Limited supply in traditional luxury neighbourhoods will propel buyers into neighbourhoods east and south.
Disclaimer * The information contained in this report references data from Statistics Canada, the Bank of Canada, the Canadian Real Estate Association, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, MLS boards across Canada and other secondary sources. Sotheby's International Realty Canada and Nancy Rondeau cautions that data of this nature can be useful in establishing trends over time, but do not indicate actual prices in widely divergent neighbourhoods or account for price differentials within local markets. This report is published for general information only and not to be relied upon in any way. Although high standards have been used in the preparation of the information and analysis presented in this report, no responsibility or liability whatsoever can be accepted by Sotheby's International Realty Canada or Sotheby's International Realty Affiliates for any loss or damage resultant from any use of, reliance on or reference to the contents of this blog post.